BTC is down 20%
It's time to pay attention
During Q4 2023, the crypto market feigned a bull market. Now, after a 20% correction on Bitcoin, the altcoin market is close to deviating back inside its capitulation range.
The golden bull run is upon us
The altcoin (low-caps) market is still in the process of finding a bottom vs. BTC. If our thesis is right, the ideal time to position in the altcoin market is still upon us.
Most importantly, one should note that altcoins / BTC is putting a macro higher low, hence technically, altcoins are more bullish than Bitcoin on a macro timeframe.
We can take this one step further and notice the same about BTC / S&P 500.
Considering these two insights, it should become evident that the altcoin market represents a promising opportunity for the future, especially as the exponential growth trajectory of global technology seems to be at an inflection point.
However, this comes with an important caveat **** (Please read below).
****
The altcoin market is still a young and wild space with all kinds of investment vehicles ranging from blatantly useless tokens (meme/scam), to tokens that promise to be useful in the future (highly speculative), to token providing governance over profitable protocols, to critical tech-commodities of the decentralised economy.
At Anaideia, our opinion is that most of altcoin investments are not worth their inherent risk while a select few are widely superior investments destined to overperform greatly anything else out there. The second important aspect of this market is its wild volatility affecting even the fundamentally strongest tokens, making educated market timing essential, no matter the quality of fundamental analysis.
****
Our entry is imminent
As described through past blog updates, we have exercised a lot of caution in increasing our exposure to altcoins, aiming to sidestep significant market declines often seen in the late stages of a bear market.
However, now, indicators and AI signals suggest that we’re finally at the utmost tail-side of accumulation / capitulation; in other words, the point of maximum opportunity for long entry in anticipation of a multi-year bull market.
→ By the next update, we will most likely have deployed our net-long strategy, including the following 2-week plan for strategic acquisitions.
Why did we short the market last month?
We sold the BTC surge (avg price: $39k) last month.
We entered the market too early and had to manage risk by exiting at an average price of $42k, resulting in a small loss. However, our belief that the market would decline hasn’t changed, and our patience has paid off. We are now able to purchase at lower prices, thereby avoiding unnecessary risks associated with market volatility.
Our recent blog article outlines some of the reasons (AI signals & easy to understand specific pieces of data) why we turned bearish on this technical break out.
Future Outlook
Our thesis remains unchanged since last update: The Great Reversal: When & Why?
Special take: Crypto is also an AI play
Over the long run, if AI is to reduce the cost of goods and services, logically, it should increase the relative value of scarce assets, like metals and top-tier cryptocurrencies.
How to invest?
We are now opening a new avenue for investing into early-stage protocols, on top of your existing set-up, for more infos please check out our recent blog article.